Review: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Superforecasting is, technically, just a long explanation about what the Good Judgement Product found in its forecasting tournaments. Specifically, that it is possible to predict the future better than prediction markets.

The big question that should make you come to the book and that the book answers wonderfully is, "how can I do this too?" It turns out the answer isn't by creating the greatest mathematical models (though that helps) or being super smart (though that helps). the answer, Tetlock explains, is by thinking probablistically, and by attempting to improve yourself after failure, as well as getting feedback. I don't think this is revolutionary. it's common sense... but it isnt celebrated in the culture. Tetlock and Gardner hit on this on their cultural examples: we hate uncertainty, we hate uncertain leaders, and hate being wrong. It's why meteorologists tend to be the most accurate TV personalities, but the most reviled.

The book, hopefully, will make you think about things harder and probably make you more inclined to read 538.com